Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) sapphire capacity remains a bone of contention among analysts

Debate is raging on a number of fronts over what Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) product rollout for 2014 will look like in terms of sapphire crystal utilization. The Cupertino firm’s massive outlays for sapphire to GT Advanced Technologies (NASDAQ: GTAT) indicates that sapphire is going to be used for some Apple devices at a minimum. The Mesa, Arizona plant that GTAT is constructing is already manufacturing unprecedented quantities of sapphire crystal, a scratch-proof material that was long believed to be too expensive for widespread electronics use.

Some analysts and pundits claim that despite this, sapphire will have only a modest presence in Apple’s 2014 retail launches, citing difficulties in producing and implementing the new material on a large scale. Others assert with equal confidence that Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones and iWatch models will all feature sapphire displays, based on the extremely robust production figures hinted at by GTAT information releases.

GT Advanced TechnologiesOn the sanguine side of the debate, Mark Margolis of Seeking Alpha is confident, based on a detailed analysis of GTAT’s production capabilities, that every iPhone and iWatch made this year will feature a sapphire cover. Mr. Margolis cites such verifiable evidence as the greatly increased sapphire boule size provided by the Mesa facility, and supply chain analysis.

Conversely, an ample helping of doom and gloom is dished up by various Asian analysts. Kevin Chen of the Taipei Times provides one of the most pessimistic scenarios, stating that as few as 10 million units could feature sapphire covers in 2014. Since iPhone production is expected to be around 70 million units, with tens of millions of iWatches as well, this would mean that 1/7 of all iPhones made this year might have sapphire glass displays, and perhaps less.

Regardless of the exact amount of sapphire crystal that is used in Apple’s new products this year, however, it seems likely to mark two things. In the first place, it will be used as an advertising tool indicating Apple’s qualitative advantage compared to its rivals. In this role – that of proving that Apple is an advanced company that has superior products to offer – it may assist in selling even those products (if any) that still feature Gorilla Glass displays rather than the updated material. The impression of superiority sapphire gives will “rub off” on all Apple products.

Secondly, even if Apple does not manage to cover every iPhone model and iWatch variant with sapphire this year, it is only a matter of time until the new material supplants Gorilla Glass entirely, at least for mobile devices at high risk of scratching. Sapphire is, at the moment, the wave of the future, and its presence in even a fraction of Apple’s 2014 product releases is a foreshadowing of its ever greater role in future product design.